Results of a poll by a university research project
Opinion polls are usually either biased or scientifically inaccurate, hence it is difficult to believe their outcome. However, the news site, Parsineh, has recently published the results of a poll which has been conducted by a university research project. The outcome of this poll tallies with the prediction of Atieh Bahar Consulting (ABC) for the first round of elections on 12 June.
ABC’s prediction is based on a segmentation of the Iranian society into various age, income class, urban/rural and educational groups and then gauging the voter behavior in each group.
The results published by Parsineh indicate the following tendencies among the electorate (the sample population was 35,000 citizens):
•Mir Hossein Mousavi: 24.8%
•Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 23.6%
•Mehdi Karrubi: 22.3%
•Mohsen Rezai: 8.5%
There is no doubt that the mood could shift enormously between now and the election date, especially based on internal and external events, but it is clear that the elections will go into a second round with Mousavi and Karrubi having the highest potential for joining Ahmadinejad in the second round.
May 4, 2009